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Re: Automatic Model Selection

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Hello Lalit


I agree with Mukesh's response.


As all the Univariate models are basically Time Series models.  Time series models use patterns from the past to try and predict the future(extrapolation). These models required number of periods for forecast model initialization and to identify the data pattern, and so it has an impact on history horizon.

 

Following is how I have understood model initialization period required by forecast models -

Constant Model requires ...1 Period...because it has to just use that one period and then extrapolate into future.

Trend Model requires - 3 Periods...to know whether trend is increasing(upward) or decreasing(downward) minimum 3 periods are essential.

Seasonal - 1 complete season...as this will tell the system how the demand is shaping up, which all months it rises or contracts and which all months it flattens..

With same logic for Trend + Seasonal model requires....1 complete Season and 3 Periods.


Here is the SAP Help link on this topic

Model Initialization - Forecasting - SAP Library


Hope this will help.

 

Thank you

Satish Waghmare


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